Astrologically, Autumn does extend all the way until about the 20th of December, so it’s not much of a stretch that I’m going to discuss the rest of the movies for the entire year. Personally, I don’t go by astrological seasons, instead preferring meteorological ones, which are based on average temperatures and also start on the first of the month. Thus, winter would start on December 1st, which makes more sense to me. But enough on that, let’s talk about movies! By the way, I’m only going to talk about ones I actually give a shit about.
October 9
Couples Retreat: This is the only movie coming out this weekend and I think it has breakout potential. It’s got a pretty stacked cast and should definitely do solid numbers. Plus, Kristen Bell is in it. That makes it even better.
Opening Weekend: 33 million
Total: 110 million
Maximum I could see happening: 165 million
October 16
Law Abiding Citizen: I have no idea what this is about and Gerard Butler’s last movie didn’t exactly amaze me. I still think this should do pretty decently, though.
Opening Weekend: 13 million
Total: 35 million
Max: 80 million
Where the Wild Things Are: I loved this book as a kid and I know lots of others did as well. The trailer and TV spots have been great and if the movie is actually good, this one has a lot of potential. I don’t really like the mid-October release, though. A movie like this would seem better suited to a launch in November. Oh well. Anyway, I really hope to see this do well.
Opening Weekend: 27 million
Total: 150 million
Max: 260 million
October 23
Astro Boy: I just don’t think anime can be translated well to the big screen. Speed Racer and Dragonball failed miserably. Anime is more of a cult thing; I can’t see it ever being mainstream (with the obvious exception of Pokemon). So, I don’t expect much from this. It could surprise me, though.
Opening Weekend: 23 million
Total: 65 million
Max: 115 million
Saw VI: I’m amazed at the ability of the producers to churn out these year after year after year. They’ve seen steadily diminishing numbers ever since the high achieved by the second one and this one won’t buck the trend. They’re also becoming more frontloaded. Pretty much anyone who’s going to see this is going to see on opening night.
Opening Weekend: 29 million
Total: 50 million
Max: 65 million
October 30
Michael Jackson’s This Is It: Morbid fascination surrounding the death of the star of a movie can cause a movie to bomb or become a huge success. I see the former happening here.
Opening Weekend: 19 million
Total: 40 million
Max: If I’m completely wrong, this could really break out. I’d say it could hit as high as 150 million.
November 6
A Christmas Carol: I hate the fact that a Christmas movie is released every year on the first weekend of November. Can’t they wait a few weeks? It would make way more sense to release the first weekend of December, let it run for a few weeks, and then get some nice boosts when the holiday rolls around. Regardless, I think this is going to be huge. You’ve got a classic story, Jim Carrey, it’s in 3-D, and a few other factors. This one has gargantuan potential.
Opening Weekend: 68 million
Total: 255 million
Max: 340 million
November 13
2012: A Christmas Carol somewhat limits the potential for this. But this kind of the end all for disaster porn films. It doesn’t get any more epic. I definitely think it’ll do pretty well, but I’m going out on a limb and saying that some people on message boards are hugely overestimating this.
Opening Weekend: 57 million
Total: 140 million
Max: 230 million
November 20
New Moon: Let me first say that I attempted to read this book and could not finish it. I just became bored. The movie seems to have amped the action considerably and the trailer makes it look very entertaining, far better than the first entry in the series. The fangirl rush to see this opening weekend is going to lead to what will be one of, possibly the biggest opening of the year. Then it will fall to pieces with god awful legs. This Twilight craze has only grown more intense and the trailer actually makes it look an entertaining movie. I hate to say this, but New Moon could seriously challenge Revenge of the Fallen for biggest opening of the year. Only time will tell.
Opening Weekend: 102 million (Max: 125 million)
Total: 205 million
Max: 260 million
November 27
This weekend looks like crap. I think New Moon will repeat on top. Then again, Wild Hogs somehow made a shitload of money, so maybe Old Dogs could break out. I’m not making any predictions here because they won’t even be close.
December 4
Yeah, I’m not feeling anything for any of these movies. I don’t see any one them opening higher than 35 million. The one with the most potential seems like Everybody’s Fine. I’ll give that like a 25 million weekend. I really have no idea, though.
December 11
Did You Hear About the Morgans?: More crap. It’s a romantic comedy starring Hugh Grant, so this will make some money. I’ll give it a 15 million opening weekend.
December 18
Avatar: This has the weekend all to itself, but it’s such a damn wild card. Some of the hype and expectations surrounding this are absolutely astronomical. People are making way much of this. Yes, it will make a lot of money, but I can’t see it making Titanic like numbers. So, I’m going to go the conservative route here.
Opening Weekend: 45 million
Total: 180 million
Max: The sky’s the limit, I suppose. Realistically, the maximum I could see is a little higher than Revenge of the Fallen’s total, so about 415 million or so.
December 25
Sherlock Holmes: This looks pretty slick and Robert Downey Jr. has become a box office draw lately. Especially if Avatar disappoints, this might step in to fill the void of big holiday success. It’s definitely got star power and a very well-known character, so the potential is there. And it’s got some holiday boosts to help it along.
Opening Weekend: 53 million
Total: 188 million
Max: 230 million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squekuel: So help me god, this movie has huge and perhaps somewhat underestimated potential. The first one broke out massively, making more in its opening weekend than many thought it could manage all together. It then had some good legs on its way to a very solid 217 million total. This should only build on that. Then again, Night at the Museum 2 fell quite a bit short of its predecessor, for which I’m very thankful.
Opening Weekend: 57 million
Total: 202 million
Max: 245 million
Yeah, so there you have it. I’ll go over all this shit at the end of the year and hopefully, I won’t be marvelling at how terribly I predicted all this. I think I was actually pretty generous to all these movies. So, in the end, I probably will be way off. I want to see what the massively hyped Avatar can do and I want to see what kind opening New Moon can have. This is actually a pretty interesting collection of movies. I’m pretty excited.
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